Monday, July 5, 2010
STAGE 3: COMPIEGNE
COMPIEGNE, where you can't tell where the forest ends and the race track begins, an idyllic setting for racing, small homespun grandstand, classic wood and stone architecture, a festive small town atmosphere, and a feast of racing, even though a notch in class below the Parisian tracks. The World War I armistice was signed in the Compiegne forest, and when France fell to the Nazis, Hitler had the armistice revoked in the same forest. Compiegne is an elegant city with vintage styles of architecture, a living testimony of France's sense of historic preservation.
We entered this stage with 140 km (87.5 miles) and added 68 km (42.5 miles) for an accumulated total of 208 km (130 miles). But more than the miles today, it was "contre la montre" (against the clock, as they say in the Tour de France). We had to bike at sustained speed to make it from the train station at Pont-Sainte-Maxence on the Oise River to get to the first race and featured race on time, and then we had to reverse the process to catch the train to Paris from Pont-Sainte-Maxence.
The whole route was along the Oise River, and half of it was bike path, so it was a case of "scenic doping". If any doping happens on our alternative Tour de France, it will be performance dis-enhancing substances, such as red wine.
A typical scene in France is poppy flowers growing wild in wheat fields, and here, the poppy has romantic symbolism rather than its reputation for a source of dope. Only obstacle besides the clock: we took a wrong path in the woods and to get out, had to walk our bikes on a hopelessly narrow path along an electrified fence that protected a corn field from scavengers. At one treacherous point, Alan got a shock.
Handicapping Lesson
As I've been writing, American handicapping methods can be applied across the globe. Today I hit a MULTI (you have to pick the top 4 horses in any order, better than a superfecta because a longshot in fourth place has the same value as if it were to finish first). This bet is only for fields of 14 or more.
The method, which I call "the Short Form", in honor of the IRS, truly simplifies the selection and elimination process, and it works well for Tbreds, jumpers and trotters.
In this case, I got a 25-1 payoff in a simulcast trot race from Vichy. All I did the night before was find a race where most of the trainers had less than a 5% win rate, and eliminated them all, with one exception. An eliminated horse is restored as a contender if it has overachieved at today's race track.
The method works great in the USA as well, and in fact, that's where I derived it (I'll explain in detail in a longer report). But with smaller fields in the USA, I can eliminate trainers with less than a 12% hit rate. There is also a class filter, and horses that are proven losers at today's class level are eliminated.
I also collected on the quinella, where I used the two horses-for-course. I got shut out when trying to play the only American bred (in honor of July 4th weekend) in a 2-year-old field when I saw the late betting action. He won.
The body is not just a physical specimen, like, say a poppy flower. The mind has its say. After collecting on this bet, I found it much easier to cycle full speed ahead from the race track to train station two hours away.
Alan and I are doing this trip at our own expense. So far we've been able to pay for some of our expenses thanks to the horses, and if these horses work so hard to give us thrills, including the ones that lose, then when they must retire, they deserve to be spared from the slaughterhouse. It's so simple. We don't kill off any living being just because it can't work for us anymore. That's about our own humanity.
mc
PS. Tomorrow is a longer stage and we may collapse before being able to file a report. Please stay tuned for the next report, and support the cause.
We entered this stage with 140 km (87.5 miles) and added 68 km (42.5 miles) for an accumulated total of 208 km (130 miles). But more than the miles today, it was "contre la montre" (against the clock, as they say in the Tour de France). We had to bike at sustained speed to make it from the train station at Pont-Sainte-Maxence on the Oise River to get to the first race and featured race on time, and then we had to reverse the process to catch the train to Paris from Pont-Sainte-Maxence.
The whole route was along the Oise River, and half of it was bike path, so it was a case of "scenic doping". If any doping happens on our alternative Tour de France, it will be performance dis-enhancing substances, such as red wine.
A typical scene in France is poppy flowers growing wild in wheat fields, and here, the poppy has romantic symbolism rather than its reputation for a source of dope. Only obstacle besides the clock: we took a wrong path in the woods and to get out, had to walk our bikes on a hopelessly narrow path along an electrified fence that protected a corn field from scavengers. At one treacherous point, Alan got a shock.
Handicapping Lesson
As I've been writing, American handicapping methods can be applied across the globe. Today I hit a MULTI (you have to pick the top 4 horses in any order, better than a superfecta because a longshot in fourth place has the same value as if it were to finish first). This bet is only for fields of 14 or more.
The method, which I call "the Short Form", in honor of the IRS, truly simplifies the selection and elimination process, and it works well for Tbreds, jumpers and trotters.
In this case, I got a 25-1 payoff in a simulcast trot race from Vichy. All I did the night before was find a race where most of the trainers had less than a 5% win rate, and eliminated them all, with one exception. An eliminated horse is restored as a contender if it has overachieved at today's race track.
The method works great in the USA as well, and in fact, that's where I derived it (I'll explain in detail in a longer report). But with smaller fields in the USA, I can eliminate trainers with less than a 12% hit rate. There is also a class filter, and horses that are proven losers at today's class level are eliminated.
I also collected on the quinella, where I used the two horses-for-course. I got shut out when trying to play the only American bred (in honor of July 4th weekend) in a 2-year-old field when I saw the late betting action. He won.
The body is not just a physical specimen, like, say a poppy flower. The mind has its say. After collecting on this bet, I found it much easier to cycle full speed ahead from the race track to train station two hours away.
Alan and I are doing this trip at our own expense. So far we've been able to pay for some of our expenses thanks to the horses, and if these horses work so hard to give us thrills, including the ones that lose, then when they must retire, they deserve to be spared from the slaughterhouse. It's so simple. We don't kill off any living being just because it can't work for us anymore. That's about our own humanity.
mc
PS. Tomorrow is a longer stage and we may collapse before being able to file a report. Please stay tuned for the next report, and support the cause.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
STAGE 2: CHANTILLY
STAGE 2: CHANTILLY
We entered Stage two with 104 km or 65 miles. Cycle to the Gare du Nord train station (4km), bikes on a train to beyond the congested suburbs, get off at the village, Orry-la-Ville, cycle through two fresh forests, Coye and Chantilly, descend to a pond with a castle, and climb back up to eventually cross magnificent dirt horse-training “avenues”, just before arriving at the race course (14 km). Reverse the process for the return and it ends up as 36 km (22.5 miles). New total: 140 km (87.5 miles).
Chantilly is not just a race track. It is pure history. Chantilly’s first race card dates back to
1834. On the “backstretch” the horses gallop by “the Great Stables” (1719-1740), perhaps the most beautiful horse stable in the world, certainly better than the housing we humans have in Paris. Today this castle-like structure with its Versailles-style gardens, serves as The Living Museum of the Horse.
Once the horses pass this furlong-length masterpiece (a rainbow of silks flowing by cream-colored grainy stone), they round the turn in front of the elegant Chantilly Chateau (begun in the 16th century but mostly rebuilt in the 19th century). The horses enter the long stretch, and the head-on shows the castle in the background.
The spectacle itself is well worth it, but you can also play the horses at Chantilly. Alan played the horses on July 4 and won four of five. He was on fire. We had to leave early so he didn’t play the sixth, and his horse lost. Anything he did or did not do came out right. (I was able to hit two of three, as well.)
Alan had started out the day with positive energy, having seen a great article in that morning’s Paris-Turf portraying our cycling project, which eloquently raised the issue of Thoroughbred retirement. This was already a big victory for us because every trainer and owner reads the Paris-Turf and we had successfully presented the issue (our thanks to Alain Stromboni, the young journalist who so aptly synthesized our ideas). As a result of the article, we were interviewed by the French racing network, Equidia.
But you may ask: how can an American player step in and handicap French races. This trip serves as a test for my hypothesis: that good handicapping is universal and transferable from one racing culture to another.
One example is Alan’s 9.80 winner in the second race, for three-year olds. NAABEGHA, trained by Freddy Head, had shown early speed in his only two-year-old race, quitting in the stretch of that mile event. Strangely, for his 3-year-old comeback race, Head stretched the horse out to a mile and 3/8 and he failed to make a move in the stretch.
NAABEGHA then shortened up to 7 furlongs and finished second at 40-1. No matter where in the world you play the horses, overachievers often come back to do well in their next race. The colt had overachieved when shortening up in distance, so the stable had him race at yet a shorter distance, 6 furlongs, and that’s why Alan played the horse.
It was what we call a pattern match. Identifying objective patterns is an artistic talent, and I make a connection between Alan’s work in the world of art and his success in the art of handicapping.
Unfortunately for me, when Alan made this discovery, I had been involved in press box public relations, so the horses were already in the gate when Alan explained the pattern match.
My two winning plays were both horses whose off-track odds had plunged to half (still good odds) when averaged with the late on-track wagering. Both had handicapping angles in their favor, but you can always play the game of finding a positive angle for nearly every horse in a field, so for me it was the toteboard corroboration that pushed me to the betting window.
In conclusion, the pattern match discovered by Alan, would make sense in Hong Kong, Australia, the USA, Chile, and anywhere else that Thoroughbreds line up for their magnificent spectacle.
And this was Chantilly, which can stand proudly with the Pyramids or the Great Wall of China as one of the seven wonders of the world.
We entered Stage two with 104 km or 65 miles. Cycle to the Gare du Nord train station (4km), bikes on a train to beyond the congested suburbs, get off at the village, Orry-la-Ville, cycle through two fresh forests, Coye and Chantilly, descend to a pond with a castle, and climb back up to eventually cross magnificent dirt horse-training “avenues”, just before arriving at the race course (14 km). Reverse the process for the return and it ends up as 36 km (22.5 miles). New total: 140 km (87.5 miles).
Chantilly is not just a race track. It is pure history. Chantilly’s first race card dates back to
1834. On the “backstretch” the horses gallop by “the Great Stables” (1719-1740), perhaps the most beautiful horse stable in the world, certainly better than the housing we humans have in Paris. Today this castle-like structure with its Versailles-style gardens, serves as The Living Museum of the Horse.
Once the horses pass this furlong-length masterpiece (a rainbow of silks flowing by cream-colored grainy stone), they round the turn in front of the elegant Chantilly Chateau (begun in the 16th century but mostly rebuilt in the 19th century). The horses enter the long stretch, and the head-on shows the castle in the background.
The spectacle itself is well worth it, but you can also play the horses at Chantilly. Alan played the horses on July 4 and won four of five. He was on fire. We had to leave early so he didn’t play the sixth, and his horse lost. Anything he did or did not do came out right. (I was able to hit two of three, as well.)
Alan had started out the day with positive energy, having seen a great article in that morning’s Paris-Turf portraying our cycling project, which eloquently raised the issue of Thoroughbred retirement. This was already a big victory for us because every trainer and owner reads the Paris-Turf and we had successfully presented the issue (our thanks to Alain Stromboni, the young journalist who so aptly synthesized our ideas). As a result of the article, we were interviewed by the French racing network, Equidia.
But you may ask: how can an American player step in and handicap French races. This trip serves as a test for my hypothesis: that good handicapping is universal and transferable from one racing culture to another.
One example is Alan’s 9.80 winner in the second race, for three-year olds. NAABEGHA, trained by Freddy Head, had shown early speed in his only two-year-old race, quitting in the stretch of that mile event. Strangely, for his 3-year-old comeback race, Head stretched the horse out to a mile and 3/8 and he failed to make a move in the stretch.
NAABEGHA then shortened up to 7 furlongs and finished second at 40-1. No matter where in the world you play the horses, overachievers often come back to do well in their next race. The colt had overachieved when shortening up in distance, so the stable had him race at yet a shorter distance, 6 furlongs, and that’s why Alan played the horse.
It was what we call a pattern match. Identifying objective patterns is an artistic talent, and I make a connection between Alan’s work in the world of art and his success in the art of handicapping.
Unfortunately for me, when Alan made this discovery, I had been involved in press box public relations, so the horses were already in the gate when Alan explained the pattern match.
My two winning plays were both horses whose off-track odds had plunged to half (still good odds) when averaged with the late on-track wagering. Both had handicapping angles in their favor, but you can always play the game of finding a positive angle for nearly every horse in a field, so for me it was the toteboard corroboration that pushed me to the betting window.
In conclusion, the pattern match discovered by Alan, would make sense in Hong Kong, Australia, the USA, Chile, and anywhere else that Thoroughbreds line up for their magnificent spectacle.
And this was Chantilly, which can stand proudly with the Pyramids or the Great Wall of China as one of the seven wonders of the world.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
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